The 2016 atlantic hurricane season forecast released thursday from colorado state university calls for the number of named storms and hurricanes to be near historical averages. This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the hurricane season. Noaa releases 2016 hurricane season outlook by patrick phillips may 27, 2016 at 3. Predictions for the 2016 atlantic hurricane season have been released by several weather and hurricane forecasting institutions with varying reports on the activity level for the season. Early predictions suggest an average hurricane season this. Tsr has projected that the ace index for the year will be roughly 79 with a standard deviation for errors of plus or minus 57. Longrange forecasters from accuweather have issued their predictions on t he 2019 atlantic hurricane season, which includes the atlantic ocean.
Tsr, which primarily relies on julyseptember trade wind speed over the caribbean sea and tropical north atlantic, for its early predictions is projecting that the 2016 season will be below average. The 2016 atlantic hurricane season featured a combination of destructive hurricanes and climatological oddities in a season that stretched from january through late. Out of all the regions in the caribbean, the southeastern part has the least number of hurricanes and the southwestern and the northeast region the bahamas has the most. In the past decade, the hurricane season in the atlantic has averaged about fourteen tropical storms and eight hurricanes per season, and though there have been major storms, not all are catastrophic, and in fact, the caribbean has a significantly lower chance of being struck by a hurricane than the city of miami or the gulf coast of the united states. Its only the third recorded time where there has been a hurricane in january, and alex is only the second hurricane since 1938 to. That would indicate a 2016 hurricane season with around 1215 named storms, 68 hurricanes and 23 major hurricanes, which is an average year typically. The annual caribbean hurricane seasons officially begins june 1 and ends nov. The atlantic hurricane season runs from june 1 to nov. The atlantic hurricane season runs from june 1st through november 30th. Spanish translations, when available, are courtesy of the nws san juan weather forecast office.
After an active atlantic hurricane season in 2018, accuweather forecasters are predicting 2019 to result in a near to slightly abovenormal season with 12 to 14 storms. The official caribbean hurricane season runs from the 1st june through to 30th november but the hurricanes are not evenly distributed across the region during this time. The 2016 atlantic hurricane seasons impacts were widespread throughout the caribbean and the gulf coast of the united states. The caribbeanthe region southeast of mainland north america and the gulf of mexico, east of central america, and north of south americahas its official hurricane season from june 1 to november 30, peaking in august, september, and october. This means a series of big storms may hit the country for around six months until the end of november. North carolina is no stranger to attracting attention from mother nature during hurricane season, with hurricane bertha and fran in 1996, floyd in 1999, matthew in 2016, florence in 2018 and. The team predicts that 2020 hurricane activity will be. September historically is the worst month of the season for hurricane risk.
Summer comes in hot and humid on most of these tropical islands, then the weather starts to cool a few degrees as autumn arrives. It was an above average season and the most active since 2012, producing a total of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. As you can see, the 2016 predictions are mostly below the long term average with exception of noaas high. Mixed predictions for 2015 atlantic hurricane season.
As 2019 hurricanes and tropical storms form in the atlantic basin or caribbean each tropical storm name will become active and link to more information. With the us currently facing more than one million cases of covid19 and a death toll of more than 60,000 so far, the. The 2016 atlantic hurricane season was an average, but destructive, atlantic hurricane season. Bob sheets, former director of the national hurricane center, says the biggest myth about caribbean weather is that every hurricane season is unlivable. The atlantic hurricane region includes the north atlantic ocean, caribbean sea, and gulf of mexico. Hurricane researchers at the colorado state university csu, one of the main sources of hurricane predictions, have forecasted a near average 2016 atlantic hurricane season. Interpretation of noaas atlantic hurricane season outlook. The 2016 atlantic hurricane season officially began on june 1, 2016. Typical hurricane readiness measures include gathering information about approaching hurricanes, planning and enacting federal, state and local government guidelines, encouraging people to have a family hurricane survival plan. Aboveaverage hurricane season predicted this year, top. Although caribbean hurricane season runs from june through november, the most active months are usually august and september when the waters of the caribbean are at their warmest.
Early forecast of 2019 atlantic hurricane season could. Forecasts cover the atlantic basinthe area encompassing the atlantic ocean, caribbean sea, and gulf of mexico. Forecasters lower predictions as hurricane season begins. Statistically, there is a very low risk that a storm will impact your vacation. Gwo has issued the most accurate preseason hurricane predictions by any organization the past 8 years and was right on the money with winter predictions and the california drought and unlike. Cited as the most accurate predictions by any organization, former noaa meteorologist professor david dilley has issued the most accurate preseason and inseason hurricane tracking predictions, averaging a stunning 87% hotspot accuracy rate during the past 11years, and gwos predictions were extremely precise in both 2017 and 2018. If you follow the news, then you may have noticed some headlines the second week in january about an unusual atlantic disturbance.
Technology and modeling innovations usher in the 2016. The 2006 atlantic hurricane season was the least active since 1997 as well as the first season since 2001 in which no hurricanes made landfall in the united states, and was the first since 1994 in which no tropical cyclones formed during october. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity. Forecasters lower predictions as hurricane season begins caribbean360 june 1. Some islands in the southern caribbean such as aruba and barbados are less hurricaneprone than further north. The national hurricane center will release their season predictions shortly before the 2016 atlantic hurricane season begins on june 1st. Understanding the predictions for the 2016 hurricane season. Even though the caribbean hurricane season is from june to november, there are still times when hurricanes are almost nonexistent. Noaa updated its 2016 atlantic hurricane season outlook, first issued in may, and said there is a high probability of a nearaverage or aboveaverage season. Across the entire atlantic, klotzbachs team is forecasting eight hurricanes to form. Unusually active atlantic hurricane season is predicted. When it comes to hurricanes, there are many indicators related to atmospheric and oceanic conditions that indicate what to expect. How to travel to the caribbean during hurricane season.
Typically, if your trip is canceled or interrupted due to a storm, you can be refunded up to the limit of coverage. The hurricane season officially extends from june 1 to november 30. The 2016 atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce with 70% probability for each range 1217 named storms which includes hurricane alex in january and hurricane earl, along with tropical storms bonnie, colin, and danielle, of which 58 are expected to become hurricanes, and 24 of those are expected to become major hurricanes. Noaa updates hurricane season forecast, raises predicted. Hurricanes occasionally form in may so dont be fooled into believing that they cant form outside these dates.
Below is a comparison of the noaa and colorado state universitys predictions along with the 19812010 average and final numbers for 20122015. Theres also a 58percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the caribbean, the outlook states. Each year, the national oceanic and atmospheric administration noaa releases hurricane season predictions for the atlantic basin, which includes the atlantic, caribbean sea and gulf of mexico. In just over a months time, the us atlantic hurricane season will begin.
Est the national oceanic and atmospheric administrations climate prediction center has predicted that this years atlantic hurricane season could. The average caribbean hurricane season may have as many as 12 to 20 named storms of which six could become hurricanes, according to the national oceanic and atmospheric administration. Still, if youre planning to vacation in florida, the gulf coast, or the caribbean during hurricane season, you might consider buying travel insurance or opting for a hotel with a hurricane guarantee. Caribbean hurricane season caribbean hurricane forecast. Your chances of getting hit by a hurricane in the caribbean is probably not a whole lot different than it is in miami or on the gulf coast, says sheets. Following the intense activity of 2005, forecasters predicted that the 2006 season would be only slightly less active. More information is available via gwos preseason hurricane webinars and their detailed hurricane zone predictions at, or prediction. Noaa predicts nearnormal 2016 atlantic hurricane season. Conflicting 2016 hurricane season predictions by forecasters. Alex, a rare january hurricane and tropical storm bonnie late last week. Ocala, fl prweb april, 2016 global weather oscillations gwo says the 2016 2017 atlantic hurricane seasons will be the strongest in over 4 years followed by a harsh united states winter. The 2016 count began early this year with two named storms to date. The 2019 season was also marked by category 5 dorians brutal assault on the northern bahamas and was the first time since 2012s hurricane sandy. The 2016 hurricane season will provide an opportunity for our scientists to test some of the most advanced and innovative technologies and refined forecasting tools to help better predict a.
1258 665 1307 1531 82 448 1448 1137 1130 718 650 899 799 602 105 288 146 965 1167 1001 987 1146 1029 600 1 193 659 218 1008 1156 1496 653 862 291 1369 579 134 831